Fireballs

Negative Control

Events

1,052

Precision

second-level

Branching Ratio

0.007

Independent

~100%

~0% of events in this dataset were triggered by prior events. Only ~100% are independent (~1,052 of 1,052).

⚠

Era-corrected value

Full-dataset value: 0.960 | Era-corrected: 0.007. The full-dataset value is inflated by 1994 satellite upgrade created artificial clustering in the full dataset.

Data Quality Notes

•Pre-1994 and post-1994 eras show completely different clustering behavior
•Post-correction BR 0.007 confirms fireballs are genuinely random astrophysical events

If You're Using This Dataset

Known Issues

•Full-dataset BR of 0.960 is entirely an artifact of the 1994 satellite upgrade

Key Insight

If our method produced a high branching ratio for fireballs, it would be wrong. It doesn't. This is the negative control.

Downloads

Processed data exports for this dataset. Includes Hawkes-thinned independent events, decomposition results, and curiosity scanner reports.

Thinned CSV (independent events only)Hawkes decomposition results (JSON)Curiosity scanner report

Also available on GitHub

Citation

Suggested citation

Brothers, B. (2026). Fireballs Hawkes Process Decomposition: ~100% Independent Events from 1,052 Total. Project Aletheia. https://projectaletheia.org/datasets/fireballs

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